Glaz Roman Alekseevich, postgraduate student at Dubna State University
Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop a set of mathematical models for quantitatively assessing the instability of regional systems as a pre-crisis state, measured through deviations from a benchmark level of balance. The methodology is based on a synthesis of a modified taxonomic method, a hybrid approach to determining criterion weights (SWARA + entropy analysis), and a system-energy approach as an independent verification tool. A system of 26 indicators, grouped into economic, social, environmental, and institutional blocks, was developed. An algorithm for calculating the integral instability indicator and a procedure for its decomposition were developed. Testing confirmed high consistency between the model and net capacity per capita (Pearson correlation coefficient r = –0.91 in 2023). The proposed toolkit allows for ranking regions by level of imbalance and identifying specific problem areas, making it suitable for providing information support for strategic planning.
KEYWORDS: instability of the regional system, integrated assessment, taxonomic method, system-energy approach, sustainable development.
Download article MODELS FOR INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF INSTABILITY OF REGIONAL SYSTEMS
